South Africa - Institutional
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It always seems impossible until it’s done.” – former President of South Africa, Mr Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela
- “If you want peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” – Archbishop Desmond Tutu
We explore the reasons for the sustained streak without loadshedding and discuss what we can expect heading into winter.
The series concludes with a case study on Brazil, a discussion on what sets South Africa apart from the countries discussed in this series and broad guidelines for investors on asset allocation in so-called “worst-case scenarios”.
In episode two, we ask if domestic equities will always preserve value in cases of severe countrywide decline and major macroeconomic instability.
Our first episode features the fascinating series of events that unfolded in Argentina, Lebanon and Venezuela respectively.
“Nothing is more obstinate than a fashionable consensus. ” - Margaret Thatcher, British Prime Minister, 1979 - 1990
Mounting risk to the fiscal health of indebted emerging markets will require careful navigation.
Passing breeze or real winds of change?
“The storm only comes to teach you how to skillfully sail your ship.” – Matshona Dhliwayo, author and philosopher
Good intentions and a renewed commitment to growth are not enough to make government's financial position sustainable
Vulnerabilities increase the risk of longer-term damage
“When the world is running down, you make the best of what’s still around.” – Musician and actor, Gordon Sumner (aka Sting)
“If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has.” – Economist John Maynard Keynes
We can’t afford not doing better
South African government bonds remain attractive despite global shocks
Life in the time of coronavirus
Let us not waste another crisis
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” – Chinese proverb
Significant opportunities may underlie a bleak outlook
Transformative policy paper needs strong implementation
Restoring confidence is key to growth recovery
But depressed growth and further Eskom support weigh heavily on government
The price is right (or at least it feels that way)
The economic cost of rent seeking
Offshore acquisitions by domestic companies
Highlights from ‘Talking Investments with Coronation’
Government’s management of the power crisis will be telling of its broader capacity for reform
Feeling in the dark? Shining a light on uncertainty
But South African bonds still offer a bulwark against global policy normalisation
2018 in review
“The trouble is, you think you have time.” – Gautama Buddha
It was always going to get messy
When it rains on your parade
But after riding the wave of optimism, we are now cautious of South African bonds at current levels
South Africa’s prospects are looking better, but durable change needs vision and consensus
Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC needs to save South Africa from economic déjà vu
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